
February 2026 Market View
① Macro Economy Summary
- United States: Growth is slowing but a hard landing is not the base case. However, uncertainty surrounding the next Fed Chair appointment could cloud the policy outlook and increase market volatility.
- Europe: Growth remains subdued while inflation converges toward 2%. Wage trends, rather than politics, are likely to anchor policy decisions, keeping rate cuts gradual.
- Japan: With elections ahead, expectations for growth- and fiscal-supportive policies may rise. If the wage–price cycle holds, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue gradual normalization.
- Common theme: Expanding AI investment supports growth, but rising costs in energy, resources, and labor could rekindle inflation concerns.
② Key Investment Strategy Points
- In the US, markets must balance rate-cut expectations with uncertainty over the Fed Chair appointment, arguing against overly directional positioning.
- For US equities, selectivity matters more than headline indices. A phase of correction from mega-cap concentration favors broader diversification.
- Bonds continue to offer attractive yields. Diversifying maturities and issuers helps manage renewed inflation and policy uncertainty risks.
- Gold and silver have shown heightened volatility recently, yet their role as insurance against political and financial uncertainty remains intact. Allocation discipline matters more than timing.
- FX markets may react not only to yield differentials but also to Japan’s political calendar and risk-off episodes, supporting JPY intermittently.
- To prepare for periods when both stocks and bonds correct, selective use of alternatives such as hedge funds (after due consideration of liquidity) may enhance resilience.
③ Asset-Class Outlook
US Equities:
AI investment remains a medium-term tailwind, but uncertainty around Fed leadership and policy direction could amplify valuation swings. Expect wider dispersion beneath resilient indices.Japan Equities:
Elections may lift expectations for domestic demand, wage growth, and fiscal support. Still, bouts of yen strength or rising rates could trigger pullbacks, favoring balanced exposure.Investment-Grade Bonds:
Yields remain appealing and may cushion portfolios during slower growth. Managing reinflation and policy-shift risk through maturity diversification is key.Gold:
Supported by geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, gold remains elevated. Despite short-term volatility, it continues to enhance portfolio stability.USD/JPY:
Beyond narrowing rate differentials, Japan’s political events could tilt risks toward yen appreciation at times. Positioning for both upside and downside scenarios is prudent.
Key Reference
- Federal Reserve
“Summary of Economic Projections”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm - European Central Bank
“Macroeconomic projections”
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html - Bank of Japank
“Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/index.htm - Goldman Sachs
“Why AI Companies May Invest More Than $500 Billion”
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-ai-companies-may-invest-more-than-500-billion-in-2026 - J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“2026 Market Outlook”
https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-outlook-2026/ - UBS Global Wealth Management
“Year Ahead 2026”
https://advisors.ubs.com/nwm/mediahandler/media/766702/UBS_YA2026_global_en_digital_accessible_2025_11C.pdf - Barron’s
“Gold, Silver Are Volatile After Slump. Why Trump’s Warsh Fed Pick Is Bashing Prices”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gold-price-silver-selloff-trump-warsh-376c63ff - Nomura Asset Management
「衆院解散表明で日本の金融市場はどうなるのか」
https://www.nomura-am.co.jp/market/marketcomment/20260120_JAPAN_Election_Markets.pdf
This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.
January 2026 Market View
① Macro Economy Summary
- The US is likely to cool without a hard break. Easier financial conditions help, but a re-inflation surprise remains a key risk.
- Europe’s growth remains soft, while inflation gravitates around ~2%. Sticky wages/services keep policy cautious.
- Japan’s wage-price cycle supports gradual further tightening if the outlook holds. FX-driven inflation sensitivity stays in focus.
- Global equities are strong on AI capex optimism, but investors increasingly watch the risk of AI-related cost inflation.
② Key Investment Strategy Points
- Balance “rate-cut tailwinds” with “re-inflation headwinds.” Avoid one-way positioning.
- In equities, breadth matters more than beta. Reduce US mega-cap concentration and widen across regions/styles/themes.
- Bonds can offer both carry and ballast; emphasize investment grade and diversify maturities to manage rate/inflation surprises.
- Manage JPY in two layers. BoJ normalization can support JPY, but U.S. yields and risk sentiment can still keep USD/JPY elevated.
- Geopolitics, trade policy, and second-order AI effects can spike volatility—keep hedges (FX, gold, short duration) in the toolkit.
③ Asset-Class Outlook
U.S. equities:
AI capex is supportive, but lofty expectations raise the bar for earnings delivery. Broad indices can stay firm while dispersion widens—use diversification and buy-on-dips rather than chasing narrow leadership.Japan Equities:
Wage momentum and governance reforms are constructive, but rising rates or episodic JPY strength can trigger pullbacks. Use a balanced mix across domestic demand, high-value exporters, and financials.Investment-grade bonds:
Attractive yields plus potential downside protection if growth cools. The main risk is inflation re-ignition—manage with maturity diversification and quality bias to control “reach for yield.”Gold:
Supported by easier policy expectations and its role as insurance against geopolitics and renewed inflation. Expect volatility, but it can stabilize portfolios as a diversifier.USD/JPY:
Likely choppy—rate differentials should narrow, but the pace matters. Japan tightening supports JPY, while stronger US data can re-ignite USD strength.
Key Reference
- BOJ:Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices(Oct 2025) (Bank of Japan)
- Reuters:Bank of Japan chief vows to keep raising interest rates (Jan 2026) (Reuters)
- ECB:Eurosystem staff projections(Dec 2025) (European Central Bank)
- J.P. Morgan AM:Global Equity Views(4Q 2025) (J.P. Morgan)
- BNP Paribas WM:Equity Focus(Nov 2025) (wealthmanagement.bnpparibas)
- Capital Group:Bond outlook(Dec 2025) (CapitalGroup NACG)
- Goldman Sachs:Fed rate cuts outlook(Dec 2025) (Goldman Sachs)
- Morningstar:2026 Outlook(Nov 2025) (newsroom.morningstar.com)
- Bloomberg:Yen Bearish Voices Build for 2026 on Cautious BOJ Policy Path (Dec 2025) (Bloomberg.com)
This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.
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