Nippon Wealth PB Pte. Ltd.

June 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary

  • The global economy continues to avoid recession, but geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are contributing to a widening divergence in growth across regions.
  • While inflation has moderated from its peak, rising energy prices and higher logistics costs have increased the risk of renewed inflationary pressure.
  • In the United States, AI-related capital expenditure has become a major growth engine, supporting both economic activity and corporate earnings.
  • Expanding fiscal deficits across major economies are making long-term interest rates increasingly sensitive to government borrowing needs and bond market dynamics rather than central bank policy alone.
  • Financial markets remain relatively resilient, but uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, fiscal sustainability, and interest rates continues to warrant caution.

② Key Investment Strategy Points

  • Investment markets are gradually transitioning from a “monetary-policy-driven” environment to one increasingly influenced by fiscal policy, government debt dynamics, and private-sector capital investment.
  • The AI investment cycle is emerging as a new driver of global growth; however, its benefits remain concentrated among selected sectors and companies rather than broadly distributed across the economy.
  • Long-term interest rates are increasingly influenced by fiscal concerns in addition to inflation and central bank actions, creating potential volatility for both equities and fixed income.
  • Geopolitical developments should no longer be viewed as short-term market events. They are becoming structural factors affecting energy markets, supply chains, defense spending, and corporate profitability.
  • Effective diversification increasingly depends on combining assets with different economic drivers rather than simply increasing the number of holdings.
  • In the current environment, maintaining exposure to long-term structural themes and high-quality assets may be more important than attempting to predict short-term market direction.

③ Asset-Class Outlook

  • US Equities:

    AI-related investment remains the most important tailwind for the U.S. equity market, supporting earnings growth and economic resilience. However, valuations remain elevated, and future returns are likely to depend more on company-specific earnings growth and execution than on broad market expansion.

  • Japan Equities:

    Wage growth and corporate governance reforms remain supportive for Japanese equities. Compared with many developed markets, Japan still offers relatively attractive earnings growth potential. Nevertheless, currency fluctuations and imported inflation remain key risks, supporting a preference for domestic-oriented businesses and companies focused on capital efficiency.

  • Investment-Grade Bonds:

    Investment-grade bonds continue to offer attractive income opportunities. However, the primary risk has shifted from inflation toward the possibility of higher long-term yields driven by fiscal deficits and increased government debt issuance. Emphasis on high-quality issuers and short-to-intermediate maturities remains appropriate.

  • Gold:

    Gold continues to benefit from central bank purchases, fiscal concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty. Beyond its traditional role as an inflation hedge, gold increasingly serves as portfolio insurance against broader financial and policy uncertainty.

  • USD/JPY:

    Higher U.S. interest rates continue to support the U.S. dollar, while expectations for further policy normalization in Japan may provide support for the yen. Rather than a sustained move in either direction, a broad trading range is likely over the next 3–12 months, favoring gradual hedging strategies.

  • Other Alternatives:

    Investment related to AI infrastructure – including data centers, power generation, electricity grids, and digital infrastructure – is likely to remain a multi-year theme. Assets with return drivers distinct from traditional public equities and bonds may continue to attract investor interest as portfolio diversifiers.

Key Reference

This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.





May 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary

  • Global growth remains resilient, but energy prices and continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raise re-inflation risks, making rate cuts easier to delay.
  • While the U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by AI investment and spending by the wealthy, growth is being driven primarily by investment in AI and large corporations, and the economic expansion remains uneven. With rising energy prices and other factors, there is a risk that inflation could pick up again, creating an environment where the Fed is likely to delay interest rate cuts.
  • Europe is recovering gradually, but higher energy costs and weak growth are complicating policy decisions.
  • Japan benefits from wage growth, yet higher oil prices may pressure corporate profits and household real income.

② Key Investment Strategy Points

  • With structurally higher interest rates and elevated volatility becoming more persistent, portfolio resilience is increasingly as important as return generation.
  • Market performance is likely to be driven less by broad index appreciation and more by selective exposure to high-quality assets with durable earnings, pricing power, and strong balance sheets.
  • While AI-related investment continues to support global growth, the benefits remain concentrated in a limited number of companies and industries, warranting caution against excessive thematic concentration.
  • As geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and re-inflation concerns coexist, diversification across equities, fixed income, and real assets has become increasingly important.
  • Given the rapid shifts in interest-rate, currency, and policy expectations, phased investment implementation may be more effective than aggressive lump-sum positioning.

③ Asset-Class Outlook

  • US Equities:

    Strong corporate earnings and AI investment remain central to the market, and profit growth is expected to be the primary driver of stock prices in 2026 as well. On the other hand, valuations are already at high levels, which tends to limit the upside potential for indices, and returns are expected to slow. Furthermore, the fact that the rally has been concentrated among a few large tech companies is a risk factor, and we are entering a phase where stock selection that prioritizes earnings quality and diversification will be crucial.

  • Japan Equities:

    Wage growth, capital efficiency reforms, and shareholder returns are positives, while imported inflation and FX swings remain risks. Favor domestic demand, financials, and companies with clear capital policies.

  • Investment-Grade Bonds:

    Starting yields remain attractive for income, though long-rate volatility requires caution. High-quality issuers and diversified short-to-intermediate maturities can help balance yield and stability.

  • Gold:

    Central bank demand, geopolitics, and fiscal concerns support the medium-term case. Pullbacks may occur, but gold remains a useful stabilizer when both stocks and bonds are volatile.

  • USD/JPY:

    High U.S. rates support the dollar, while BOJ normalization and intervention risk cap further upside. A wide trading range is likely over 3–12 months, so phased hedging is preferable.

  • Other Alternatives:

    Oil could rise again if Middle East tensions disrupt supply, affecting inflation and margins. Liquid alternatives and short-term assets can provide defense and buying power during shocks.

Key Reference

This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.





April 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary

  • Global Economy: Confronting Re-inflation Risks Amid Resilient Growth
    The escalation in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher, posing a risk of re-pressurizing inflation that had been cooling. However, sustained AI investment and resilient consumer spending are expected to support global growth, likely averting a severe recession.
  • United States: Stalled Rate Cut Cycle and “Higher-for-Longer” Realities
    The Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting rates due to sticky inflation. While growth remains near trend, concerns over the fiscal deficit and geopolitical shocks are keeping long-term yields elevated and volatile.
  • Europe: Modest Recovery Clouded by Energy Uncertainties
    Growth is expected to improve slightly in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion in Germany and increased defense spending. However, the risk of energy-linked shocks remains a primary threat to the ECB’s disinflation path and easing timeline.
  • Japan: Wage-Price Cycle Consolidation and Normalization Progress
    Stronger wages are beginning to support domestic demand, though imported inflation remains a risk. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to continue its gradual policy normalization, adjusting accommodation as economic targets are realized.

② Key Investment Strategy Points

  • Stress-Test for Energy Shocks
    Prepare for higher fuel and logistics costs stemming from Strait of Hormuz tensions. Focus on companies with strong pricing power that can protect profit margins before macro data fully reflects the shock.
  • Shift from Concentration to Breadth
    Move away from excessive reliance on mega-cap indices. Diversifying across regions, sectors, and investment styles (Value vs. Growth) is essential to build resilience against abrupt market rotations.
  • Flexible Bond Positioning
    Yields remain attractive, but re-inflation fears can cause sudden yield spikes. Utilize maturity and issuer diversification to maintain a “cushion” while avoiding excessive concentration in long-duration assets.
  • Gold as Disciplined Portfolio Insurance
    Maintain gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Discipline in allocation weighting is more critical than trying to time entries during period of heightened volatility.
  • Leveraging Non-Traditional Diversifiers
    Consider alternative assets to mitigate risks when stocks and bonds sell off simultaneously. Prioritize liquidity and transparency to ensure these assets provide true protection during market stress.

③ Asset-Class Outlook

  • US Equities:

    Solid earnings and AI tailwinds provide support, but geopolitical-driven inflation and higher-for-longer rates may cap valuation expansion. Returns are expected to be driven by earnings growth; therefore, focus on broader quality diversification and stay cautious in overcrowded segments.

  • Japan Equities:

    Wage growth and domestic demand improvements are positive drivers, yet the market remains sensitive to oil price spikes and rising global yields. Balancing exposure between exporters and domestic-oriented firms, particularly those with high shareholder-return quality, is a prudent strategy.

  • Investment-Grade Bonds:

    Absolute yields are still appealing for income-seeking investors, but inflation scares from Middle East tensions can trigger volatility. Diversifying across issuers and managing duration carefully will allow investors to benefit from the carry while dampening price fluctuations.

  • Gold:

    Supported by significant geopolitical risk and shifting policy expectations. While short-term risk-on/off shifts will cause price swings, gold serves as a vital anchor for portfolio stability during times of crisis and currency uncertainty.

  • USD/JPY:

    High US interest rates provide a floor for the dollar, while the potential for “risk-off” JPY repatriation and BOJ normalization creates appreciation pressure. Expect a range-bound environment with high two-way risks; use time-diversified entry points to manage exposure.

  • Other (Energy & Alternatives):

    Oil prices face significant upside risk if the conflict impacts supply routes, potentially feeding broader inflation. Maintaining a healthy level of cash liquidity will provide the flexibility needed to navigate shocks and capitalize on market dislocations.

Key Reference

This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material.





March 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary

  • Middle East: The Iran-related escalation raises upside risks to oil and shipping costs, potentially re-pressurizing inflation and growth.
  • United States: A slowdown remains the base case, but markets keep oscillating between disinflation and “sticky inflation” risks.
  • Europe: Growth stays soft while inflation trends calmer; wages and energy-linked shocks may dictate the pace of easing.
  • Japan: Gradual normalization continues if the wage–price cycle holds; FX and rates can still swing meaningfully.

② Key Investment Strategy Points

  • Assume second-round effects (oil, freight, insurance) can hit margins before macro data turns—stress-test portfolios accordingly.
  • Don’t anchor solely on “rate-cut hopes”; re-inflation via energy shocks can change bond and equity narratives quickly.
  • In equities, focus on breadth and quality diversification rather than index headlines; concentration can unwind abruptly.
  • Treat gold as portfolio insurance under geopolitical + policy uncertainty; allocation discipline matters more than timing.
  • JPY can strengthen in risk-off episodes beyond yield differentials; phased positioning helps manage tail moves.
  • Alternatives aren’t a cure-all, but can help resilience if you prioritize liquidity and transparency—especially when stocks and bonds sell off together.

③ Asset-Class Outlook

  • US Equities:

    Growth support continues, yet geopolitics can revive cost pressures and keep rates higher for longer, amplifying valuation swings. Prefer broader, quality diversification; stay cautious where expectations are most crowded.

  • Japan Equities:

    Wages and domestic demand are supportive, but episodes of oil price increase or rising rates can trigger pullbacks. Balance exporters and domestic plays, and favor firms with stronger shareholder-return quality.

  • Investment-Grade Bonds:

    Yield carry remains attractive, but energy-driven inflation scares can jolt yields. Use maturity and issuer diversification to keep the “cushion,” avoiding excessive long-duration concentration.

  • Gold:

    Supported by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting policy expectations. Near-term volatility is likely, but it can stabilize portfolios; build exposure gradually rather than all at once.

  • USD/JPY:

    Beyond narrowing rate spreads, risk-off JPY strength remains a meaningful scenario. Over 3–12 months, two-way risks are high—manage with phased, range-aware positioning.

  • Other:

    If Hormuz/Red Sea risks flare, oil and freight can re-accelerate, feeding inflation. Check portfolio “energy shock tolerance” and keep some liquidity optionality.

Key Reference

  • Middle East and Market Impact
    • • How US-Iran tensions could shape world markets (Yahoo Finance)
    • Oil price expected to surge after Iran strikes and strait of Hormuz closure (The Guardian)
    • Wall Street Turns to ‘Haven-First’ Strategy Amid Iran Crisis (Bloomberg.com)
    • Iran Conflict Spurs Rebound in U.S. Borrowing Costs (The Wall Street Journal)
    • Global Bonds Sink as Middle East War Stokes Inflation Risk (Bloomberg.com)
  • US Federal Reserve (December 2025) (Federal Reserve)
  • ECB (December 2025) (European Central Bank)
  • BOJ (January 2026) (Bank of Japan)
  • 2026 US Stock Market Outlook: Where to Find Investing Opportunities (Morningstar)
  • 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook: AI Lift and Economic Drift (JPMorgan)

This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.





February 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary

  • United States: Growth is slowing but a hard landing is not the base case. However, uncertainty surrounding the next Fed Chair appointment could cloud the policy outlook and increase market volatility.
  • Europe: Growth remains subdued while inflation converges toward 2%. Wage trends, rather than politics, are likely to anchor policy decisions, keeping rate cuts gradual.
  • Japan: With elections ahead, expectations for growth- and fiscal-supportive policies may rise. If the wage–price cycle holds, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue gradual normalization.
  • Common theme: Expanding AI investment supports growth, but rising costs in energy, resources, and labor could rekindle inflation concerns.

② Key Investment Strategy Points

  • In the US, markets must balance rate-cut expectations with uncertainty over the Fed Chair appointment, arguing against overly directional positioning.
  • For US equities, selectivity matters more than headline indices. A phase of correction from mega-cap concentration favors broader diversification.
  • Bonds continue to offer attractive yields. Diversifying maturities and issuers helps manage renewed inflation and policy uncertainty risks.
  • Gold and silver have shown heightened volatility recently, yet their role as insurance against political and financial uncertainty remains intact. Allocation discipline matters more than timing.
  • FX markets may react not only to yield differentials but also to Japan’s political calendar and risk-off episodes, supporting JPY intermittently.
  • To prepare for periods when both stocks and bonds correct, selective use of alternatives such as hedge funds (after due consideration of liquidity) may enhance resilience.

③ Asset-Class Outlook

  • US Equities:

    AI investment remains a medium-term tailwind, but uncertainty around Fed leadership and policy direction could amplify valuation swings. Expect wider dispersion beneath resilient indices.

  • Japan Equities:

    Elections may lift expectations for domestic demand, wage growth, and fiscal support. Still, bouts of yen strength or rising rates could trigger pullbacks, favoring balanced exposure.

  • Investment-Grade Bonds:

    Yields remain appealing and may cushion portfolios during slower growth. Managing reinflation and policy-shift risk through maturity diversification is key.

  • Gold:

    Supported by geopolitical and monetary uncertainty, gold remains elevated. Despite short-term volatility, it continues to enhance portfolio stability.

  • USD/JPY:

    Beyond narrowing rate differentials, Japan’s political events could tilt risks toward yen appreciation at times. Positioning for both upside and downside scenarios is prudent.

Key Reference

This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.





January 2026 Market View

① Macro Economy Summary


  • The US is likely to cool without a hard break. Easier financial conditions help, but a re-inflation surprise remains a key risk.
  • Europe’s growth remains soft, while inflation gravitates around ~2%. Sticky wages/services keep policy cautious.
  • Japan’s wage-price cycle supports gradual further tightening if the outlook holds. FX-driven inflation sensitivity stays in focus.
  • Global equities are strong on AI capex optimism, but investors increasingly watch the risk of AI-related cost inflation.

② Key Investment Strategy Points


  • Balance “rate-cut tailwinds” with “re-inflation headwinds.” Avoid one-way positioning.
  • In equities, breadth matters more than beta. Reduce US mega-cap concentration and widen across regions/styles/themes.
  • Bonds can offer both carry and ballast; emphasize investment grade and diversify maturities to manage rate/inflation surprises.
  • Manage JPY in two layers. BoJ normalization can support JPY, but U.S. yields and risk sentiment can still keep USD/JPY elevated.
  • Geopolitics, trade policy, and second-order AI effects can spike volatility—keep hedges (FX, gold, short duration) in the toolkit.

③ Asset-Class Outlook


  • U.S. equities:

    AI capex is supportive, but lofty expectations raise the bar for earnings delivery. Broad indices can stay firm while dispersion widens—use diversification and buy-on-dips rather than chasing narrow leadership.

  • Japan Equities:

    Wage momentum and governance reforms are constructive, but rising rates or episodic JPY strength can trigger pullbacks. Use a balanced mix across domestic demand, high-value exporters, and financials.

  • Investment-grade bonds:

    Attractive yields plus potential downside protection if growth cools. The main risk is inflation re-ignition—manage with maturity diversification and quality bias to control “reach for yield.”

  • Gold:

    Supported by easier policy expectations and its role as insurance against geopolitics and renewed inflation. Expect volatility, but it can stabilize portfolios as a diversifier.

  • USD/JPY:

    Likely choppy—rate differentials should narrow, but the pace matters. Japan tightening supports JPY, while stronger US data can re-ignite USD strength.

Key Reference


This material (the “Material”) is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or invitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investment products, or to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Any views, forecasts, analyses or other information contained herein are as of the date of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The Material is prepared from sources believed to be reliable (including, without limitation, publications by central banks, government agencies and major financial institutions, as well as reputable news and data providers such as Reuters, Bloomberg and Morningstar). However, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and the Company accepts no liability for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, the Material. This Material and the information in this material is not intended, by itself, to constitute independent, impartial or objective research or a recommendation from the Company and should not be treated as such. Unless otherwise indicated, any reference to a research report or recommendation is not intended to represent the whole report and is not in itself considered a research report or recommendation. Investments involve risks, including (but not limited to) market risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and foreign exchange risk, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should make investment decisions based on your own objectives, financial situation, knowledge and experience, and risk tolerance, and you are solely responsible for such decisions. Where appropriate, you should seek independent professional advice (including financial, tax, legal and accounting advice). No part of this Material may be reproduced, distributed, published, transmitted, translated or otherwise used without the Company’s prior written consent.

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